Daily Gold Market Updates

Source: Jim Wyckoff, American Gold Exchange
Location: Austin

Evening Post (PM)

Gold futures prices are a bit higher near midday Thursday, erasing modest overnight losses following a key U.S. inflation report that came in just slightly tamer than market expectations. A pullback in the U.S. dollar index and a mild rebound in crude oil prices today are also supportive for gold and silver prices, with silver still trading to the downside but up from its daily low. August gold was last up $18.10 at $4,025.00. July silver prices were last down $0.272 at $57.815.

The U.S. PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in May, matching April’s increase and less than market expectations of a 0.5% advance. Goods inflation eased to 0.4% from 0.7%, while services inflation rose to 0.5% from 0.3% in each of the previous two months. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, the same as an upwardly revised 0.3% in the previous month and matching market forecasts. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month to 4.1% from 3.8%, confirming expectations and marking the highest level since April 2023. Core PCE inflation edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, also in line with forecasts and reaching its highest level since October 2023.

Reports say Some major Chinese banks are shutting down services that aid retail trading in precious metals after a rally in gold and silver went into reverse. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Guangfa Bank Co. are stopping intermediary services for individuals to trade precious metals on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The shutdowns are cited as being for risk management, and follow earlier restrictions on retail trading in bullion, with banks having restricted individuals from opening new positions since 2022.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down after hitting a 13-month high Wednesday. August Nymex WTI crude oil prices are firmer after hitting a nearly four-month low overnight and are trading around $71.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.386%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $4,238.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,900.00. First resistance is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,150.00. First support is at this week’s low of $3,975.70 and then at $3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0

July silver futures bulls see the next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $65.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $62.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $55.75 and then at $52.50. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.0